Strait of Hormuz reopening may take weeks to ease shipping backlog and oil pressure
It will take weeks to clear the backlog of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, industry executives and shipping experts have warned, as the critical waterway is set to reopen.
Oil prices initially dipped below $80 per barrel on news that the U.S. and Iran had agreed on a deal to end their war, as traders looked to the supply of oil, LNG and other goods being restored after nearly four months of war caused a maritime traffic jam of ships unable or unwilling to transit the Strait.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the memorandum of understanding on Wednesday night. It calls for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls by Iran for at least 60 days.
But restoring enough physical supply to the market to keep prices at a stable sub-$80 level could take weeks, and in some cases months, market watchers have told CNBC.
Operators, port authorities and energy companies across the Gulf remain in a holding pattern, with key logistical and security questions still unresolved.
“The most likely scenario is a phased restart, with some form of traffic-management mechanism involving Iran and Oman,” Adam Sharpe, vice president of editorial at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, told CNBC.
“But the unresolved questions are significant: whether vessels need prior permission, whether Iran will impose service charges, whether foreign naval escorts are accepted, and whether mines or other residual risks require a clearance process.”
Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz is complicated
Even after a political agreement to reopen the Strait, industry participants say restarting traffic will be complex and staged.
“There is no precedent for restarting Hormuz after a disruption of this nature,” Sharpe said. “A cautious working assumption would be a gradual ramp-up rather than an immediate return to 100-plus daily transits.”
Before the war, Lloyd’s List Intelligence data showed weekly Strait of Hormuz cargo-vessel transits of roughly 650 to 770 vessels, equivalent to around 90 to 110 transits per day across both directions.
Economic intelligence provider QuantCube Technology told CNBC its shipping data has yet to show a meaningful increase in oil export departures from Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Iraq.
In Saudi Arabia’s Dammam region, which includes the Ras Tanura export complex, vessels have been loaded and sent offshore to wait, according to Alan Lemangnen, senior economist at QuantCube.
